Most of us take it for granted that we can check e-mail with our mobile phones. But not long ago, this was a truly disruptive technology that changed how we did business and stayed in touch when we were away from home and the office. Which begs the question: What new mobile technologies will emerge in the next few years that will change our lives?
That question was posed to a group of industry analysts, futurists and executives for key vendors, a group grounded in reality, not fantasy. Yet, they still suggested 13 technologies that will provide dramatically better mobile access, better devices and better applications. Some of these life-changing technologies are just around the corner while others years away.
These aren't isolated technologies. Rather, for the most part, they build on each other so that one won't be possible until another is widely available. But they all, in their own way, will significantly improve how individuals and business users are mobile.
Let's see what the future holds.
Better access
Advanced applications and devices require fast, easily affordable access, but today's 3G cellular data service remains expensive and, with typical speeds between 400Kbit/sec. and 700Kbit/sec., slow. That's about to change, however, and the pace of change will remain rapid into the foreseeable future.
Disruption 1: Mobile WiMax
Sprint Nextel Corp. said it will launch its mobile Xohm WiMax network commercially in a handful of cities next spring with more cities added throughout the year and 2009. It has the potential to be a game-changer, some experts say. "If you're looking to 2009 or 2010, WiMax will be somewhat revolutionary in terms of wireless broadband," said Brian Clark, a partner with M/C Venture Partners in Boston. "It starts to offer a DSL-level of [wireless] service."
Sprint claims that Xohm's typical (as opposed to peak) speeds will be in the 2Mbit/sec. to 4Mbit/sec. range. And while Sprint hasn't yet provided pricing details, it has said its Wimax offering will be priced similarly to DSL and cable access, which is significantly cheaper than 3G. Even more radically, at least for a company best known as a cellular operator, Sprint won't demand long-term contracts but, rather, will use a subscription model.
Verizon Wireless said it will deploy a competing technology called LTE (long-term evolution), which will have similar speeds to Sprint's Xohm network. However, most observers believe that LTE and similar technologies deployed by other carriers won't start to be available until at least 2011. By that time, proponents claim second-generation mobile WiMax will offer speeds potentially as high as 1Gbit/sec.
Why it's important: Most of the other disruptive technologies discussed here require fast, affordable wireless access.
Disruption 2: Multihop relay networks
Some researchers and futurists believe that multihop relay networks will eventually supplant technologies such as WiMax and LTE. With these networks, wireless signals will route themselves through a series of access points. Like the Internet itself, the route that the data takes is variable, depending on conditions. "The network will find the best route and the best transmission mode," said Wen Tong, director of Nortel Networks' wireless technology laboratory. "I see initial deployment in three years."
A variant of the multihop relay network called ad hoc networks could come even later. With this technology, data would be relayed through, among other things, devices themselves. In other words, your phone will also be a movable access point.
"The defining quality of the ad hoc network is that it has no infrastructure," said Anthony Ephremides, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Maryland. "I'd guess it'll be [ready] in a five-to-10-year time frame."
Why it's important: These networks will extend network access to where none exists without building a lot of infrastructure. Because there is little infrastructure, the networks can withstand catastrophe. That is why, Ephremides said, the military is sponsoring a lot of research into ad hoc networks.
Disruptions 3 and 4: Femtocells and fixed-mobile convergence
Both these technologies enable you to have one phone and one phone number with which you can communicate from virtually anywhere. 
Sprint has started offering femtocells on a trial basis." style="margin-bottom: 5px;" width="160" border="0" height="242">
Sprint has started offering femtocells on a trial basis.
"Carriers will offer femtocells the way cable operators offer cable modems," said Paul Callahan, vice president of business development at femtocell vendor Airvana Inc. "They'll give you five bars in your home."
That means you'll be able to ditch your landline and use your cell phone everywhere. Sprint is offering femtocells, on a trial basis, to customers in Denver and Indianapolis and is charging $15 a month for individuals or $30 for a family. Subscribers can then make as many local and national calls as they want. T-Mobile USA launched its fixed-mobile convergence Hotspot @Home program last June, which requires a cell phone that supports both Wi-Fi and regular cellular access. Built into the phone is software that enables you, for example, to walk into your home or office while talking on the cellular network and have the call seamlessly switch to voice-over-IP on the Wi-Fi network. You also need a compliant Wi-Fi router. As with femtocells, fixed-mobile convergence allows you to lose your landline. T-Mobile is charging about $30 a month for unlimited local and national calls. The program has met with generally good reviews.
Why it's important: Having a single phone and a single phone number will be a great convenience and money saver. Also, some of the disruptive applications discussed later depend on the ability to track your availability no matter where you are. Using only a cell phone makes this more possible.
Disruption 5: Miniscule, less power-hungry mobile chips
Chip vendors have been talking about smaller, more powerful and less power-hungry chips for a long time. Now, development of such chips is likely to accelerate. "Companies like Intel have focused on putting more transistors on a chip and making their products more powerful," said Anthony Townsend, research director at Institute for the Future. "It takes a while to turn a ship like that around." The rapid growth of all things mobile is accelerating that trend, Townsend said.
Besides being smaller and significantly more power efficient, tomorrow's mobile chip sets will also combine multiple radios, such as Wi-Fi, 3G and WiMax, on a single chip, according to the experts.
Why it's important: Smaller, more powerful chips mean smaller, more powerful mobile devices and applications. Combined with faster, ubiquitous wireless broadband, that means devices can be sewn into clothing, placed unobtrusively into ears or even implanted in your teeth.
